Table of Contents
A. Objectives and Scope
 |
Objectives |
|
Scope |
B. Selection
of Dams
|
Compositions of sample |
|
Selection criteria |
C. Approach and
Methodology
|
General |
|
Methods
and Steps |
|
Data collection procedure |
|
Stakeholder
Participation and Input |
D. Operational Aspects
|
General |
|
Role of the secretarial staff |
|
Resources |
|
Timing
and Schedule |
A. Objectives and Scope
1. Annex 2 provides additional information on the objectives, scope and methods proposed for undertaking the cross-check survey of 150 large dams, and its contribution to the WCD knowledge base and three major outputs.
Objectives
2. As a complementary activity to the focal dam/basin case studies outlined in Annex 1, and as an integral part of the work programme, a cross-check survey of approximately 150 large dams will be conducted. The sample of 150 will be constructed from focal and non-focal dams in the case studies, from dams that have been previously analysed in other studies or for which data is available in existing databases, and from complementary dams that contribute to the overall diversity of the sample.
3. The analysis of this sample will seek to generate broader patterns and trends relating to the performance and decision-making aspects of dams than is otherwise possible with the 8-10 focal dam/basin case studies. The cross-check survey results will, however, only be illustrative of past experience rather than representative of all of the large dams that have been built world-wide.
Scope
4. A variety of dams of different types (e.g. storage, run-of-river); ages (e. dams from the 1930's through the 1990's), functions (e.g. water supply, irrigation, power, flood management, recreation and other); ownership structures (e.g. public, corporate and private); and regional locations will be included in the cross-check survey. Each dam will have a date record with time series dimensions where feasible. Analysis will be performed on the full set and on sub-sets of 150+ dams in the sample. Information on dams added from other existing studies will need to be supplemented with new data collected to fill gaps and to update, or otherwise verify, the data available.
5. The data collected on dams in the cross-check survey will be systematically related to the data identified for the focal dam/basin studies. However, the cross-check survey will have fewer parameters and thus allow less in-depth or comprehensive analysis than the focal dam/basin case studies. The data for the cross-check dams will essentially be a sub-set of parameters developed for the focal dam assessment of development effectiveness in the case studies. The cross-check survey will also complement the conclusions of the focal dam/basin studies by offering findings about trends in the performance and decision-making of dams over time in relation to the "case study" sub-set. Conversely, the focal dam/basin studies may illuminate causal mechanisms that explain the results obtained from the cross-check survey.
6. The cross-check survey is not intended to provide conclusions on the acceptability of individual projects. Rather, the conclusions will be of two kinds. First, patterns or frequencies across the sample for performance issues such as projected versus actual electricity generated, projected versus actual increases in agricultural production, projected versus actual costs, etc., will be identified. Second, trends over time such as the percentage change in projects undergoing environmental impact assessments as part of the project cycle and whether they were part of part of a river basin master plan will be derived.
B. Identification and Selection
of Dams
Identification Procedure
1. The 150+ dams to be included in the sample for the cross-check survey will be drawn from a number of sources including the case studies, existing studies and databases available from organizations such as the World Bank, International Energy Agency, World Resources Institute, International Rivers Network, etc., in addition to independent work commissioned by the WCD. The proposed sub-samples of dams to be included in the cross-check survey include:
150+ Large Dam
cross-check survey
Identification /Source |
Description |
Estimated number of dams |
Focal Dams |
Data from the focal large dams that are in the 8-10 basin case studies and pilot study |
9-11 |
Other non-focal dams in Case Study Basins |
Up to five large dams that are located in the basin of each focal dam from the case studies |
30-40 |
| Dams
from other existing databases |
Large dams that are available in existing studies and databases such as the World Bank OED Review of 50 dams, from other multi/bi-lateral agencies, international associations and non-governmental organisations |
30-50 |
| Complementary dams |
A sample of large dams identified by to ensure a range of dam height, function, location and age are included in the sample |
49-81 |
Total |
|
150 |
2. While there is no theoretical limit on the number of dams to consider in the cross-check survey, dams will be added to the point where it is feasible and practical, recognising that as some point adding new dams will generate diminishing returns in terms of generating patterns and trends. It is important to note that it is not possible to achieve a fully representative sample of all dams in the world and also to reiterate that lessons learnt is a key objective of the WCD.
Selection criteria
3. This section outlines the selection criteria for identifying the subsets of dams in the cross-check survey identified above other than the focal dams from the case studies. This includes principles and procedures for identifying the non-focal dams, dams from existing studies/databases, and complementary dams.
4. The following rules will be applied to choose the non-focal dams:
- select a maximum of 6 large dams (including the focal dam/s) located in each case study river basin;
- select large dams that are linked directly to the focal large dam in the approved project document (example: Gariep and Vanderkloof dams in the Orange River Project);
- select the most recent large dam in the country and river basin in which the focal large dam is located (to contribute to the analysis of changes in decision-making over time in the case studies and cross-check survey);
- select the most recent large dam in the river basin in which the focal large dam is located (to contribute to the examination of changes over time in the cross-check survey);
- select one large dam in each country in the river basin in which the focal large dam is located (to increase the geographical diversity of cross-check survey);
- select the remaining large dams nearest to the focal large dam as the crow flies in the river basin in which it is situated (to introduce an element of randomness)
5. The following procedure will be followed to choose the dams from existing studies/databases:
- Between 30 and 35 large dams will be selected from the World Bank OED desk study of 50 large dams. The primary criteria for selection will be that the large dams be located in countries not covered by the focal and non-focal dams in order to expand the geographical coverage of the cross-check survey. The focal dams and non-focal dams already selected by the criteria outlined above will be counted towards the total number of 30-35 large dams to be drawn from the OED study.
- Up to a total of 20 more large dams will be selected from existing studies and databases or organisations such as the Environmental Defense Fund and Asian Development Bank depending on the quality and accessibility of information. The primary principle for identifying these large dams will also to expand the geographical coverage of the cross-check survey.
6. To diversify the cross-check survey, a proportional stratified sampling procedure will be applied to the International Commission on Large Dams' register of large dams to select the complementary subset of between 49 and 81 large dams. This selection will be based on the following criteria:
- a) location
- b) age
- c) height
- d) function
Another 49-81 large dams will be selected for retention in case problems arise in data collection for any large dams from the original subset.
C. Approach and Methodology
General Approach
1. A database of the information collected on the cross-check large dams will be developed. Analysis will then be performed on different groupings and sub-grouping of dams to elicit any significant or informative patterns and trends. These results will be synthesised in a report presenting findings and lessons learned.
Methods and Steps
2. The cross-check survey will focus on two types of indicators: (1) predicted vs actual measures, and (2) descriptive parameters mainly relating to decision-making. It will not be possible to develop a full set of development indicators for all 150+ dams. Thus the cross-check survey will mainly focus on performance efficiency. However, as noted, a fuller set of development effectiveness indicators will be available for the 8-10 focal dams which can be analysed as a sub-set, but recognising again that only patterns and trends may be derived as the sample will not be representative of the total population of large dams.
3. As noted in Annex 1, the examination of the patterns and trends relating to development effectiveness of the 8-10 focal dams will be structured around indicators that respond to the following questions:
|
What
were the projected vs. actual benefits, costs and impacts? |
|
What
were the unexpected benefits, costs and impacts? |
|
What
was the distribution of benefits, costs, impacts – who gained and who lost? |
|
What
was the record of social and environmental mitigation? |
|
How
were decisions made? |
|
Did
the project comply with the criteria and guidelines of the day? |
|
How
would the project be viewed in today’s context in terms of lessons learned? |
4. Similar parameters will be included for each dam in the cross-check survey for the predicted versus actual and the decision-making parameters, although the range of parameteres will be less comprehensive than those available for the focal dams from the case studies.
5. The database supporting the cross-check survey itself will structure the data records with indicators in two levels: primary and secondary. It is expected that primary indicators will be available for all dams on a performance parameters (of the projected versus actual nature). The secondary level of indicators will include more of the qualitative data that will be used to generate trends and common factors on decision making and other types of impacts. The three main categories are noted in the following table:
| Category |
Parameters |
Indicators |
| Performance | For the intended functions of the dam and the costs and schedules | Quantitative indicators of projected versus actual |
| Decision Making and Impacts |
Decision making and physical, social and environmental (residual) impacts |
Various quantitative and qualitative indicators |
| Development Effectiveness |
Only for the 8-10 focal dams base on the case study data records |
Data Collection Procedure
7. Data for the focal and non-focal dams will be collected in conjunction with the execution of the case studies, while information for dams drawn from other databases will need to be supplemented and verified. The data for the complementary subset of large dams will be collected by commissioned consultants and/or submitted by parties with access to the required information. The approach for developing the data records for the cross-check large dams will include research of published reports and secondary data sources available in the public domain, as well as contact with the following types of organisations requesting information on standardized forms:
|
dam
operators and utilities; |
|
Key
government department responsible for the project (e.g. Ministry / Department of
Irrigation / Power of State or National government; or appropriate river basin development
authority); |
|
Local
institutions / universities that may have done research on the dam; |
|
Local
NGOs / networks working on dams issue at the state / national level; |
|
NGOs /
networks with a regional / international focus on dams issues; |
|
Industries
/ engineering firms with international experience and involvement in dams (with permission
of the host country); |
|
multilateral and bilateral agencies for data on dams available
with them.
|
|
· international professional associations (ICOLD, ICID, IHA, IEA) with access to data.
|
Stakeholder Participation and
Input
8. An important concern will be to verify the data records and have acceptance of the records. For this reason dams or data sets that cannot be disclosed will have to be eliminated from the process.
D. Operational Aspects
General
1. The cross-check survey will be developed and maintained in-house by Secretariat staff and database program specialists. Consultant support will be used for specific data collection tasks and general database modelling tasks.
2. Various stakeholder agencies are being canvassed to locate existing electronic and hard copy databases on large dams. These databases are being obtained, where feasible. An assessment will be made on the suitability of including the information they contain on large dams in the cross-check analysis. Data used will nonetheless be subject to a verification check. Dams to be included in the inventory and data on these dams will be added during the course of the basin case studies, and as a separate parallel exercise to the case studies.
3. The stages in developing and
using the cross-check survey will include:
Inception Stage
|
Load
and examine ICOLD large dam database |
|
Locate
and obtain other databases |
|
Select
database software and develop model |
|
Identify
parameters and indicators |
|
Finalise
pre-test data check list |
|
Input
pilot study (other trial source) data |
|
Prepare
initial analysis and charts |
|
Finalise check list |
|
Finalise
data collection check list |
Second Stage - Full Data
Collection/Input
|
Collect
data on dams |
|
Case study focal dams |
|
Case study non-focal dams |
|
Dams
in existing databases |
|
Complementary databases |
Third Stage - Analysis and
Reporting
|
Prepare
initial analysis and charts |
|
Update
database with case study information |
|
Update
database with other submissions |
|
Prepare
draft report |
|
Internal
review and verification |
|
Commission
review |
|
Finalise |
|
Issue
synthesis report
|
Secretariat Staff
4. Secretariat staff will be responsible for all aspects of the cross-check survey. Consultants will be engaged where it is necessary for data collection and modelling tasks.
Resources
13. Secretariat time will be made available as part of the Work Programme resource allocation. An initial expectation is that 15% of the total Secretariat time in 1999 will need to be made available for this work. Financial resources for the consultants will be drawn from the Work Programme budget and other sources where possible.
Schedule and Timing
14. The cross-check analysis will be initiated in parallel with the pilot case study in the December 1998-March 1999 time frame. The preliminary results will be available in December 1999 and final report by February 2000.
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