Final Paper - Table of Contents
November 2000

• 1. Introduction
• 1.1 Purpose of the Report
• 1.2 Case Study Procedure
• 1.3 Structure of the Report.
• 2. The Context and Scope of the Case Study.
• 2.1 The Indus River Basin
• 2.1.1 Land, Climate and Water.
• 2.1.2 River System
• 2.1.3 Indus Basin Irrigation System.
• 2.2 Indus Basin Project
• 2.3 Tarbela Command Canals
• 2.4 The Objectives and Components of the Tarbela Dam Project
• 3. Predicted and Actual Impacts of the Tarbela Dam Project
• 3.1 Design Characteristics
• 3.2 Time Schedules for Implementation
• 3.3 Capital and Operational Costs, Financing and Benefits
• 3.3.1 Predicted Capital Costs
• 3.3.2 Predicted Operational Costs.
• 3.3.3 Actual Capital and Operational Costs
• 3.3.4 Financing of Costs and Over-runs
• 3.3.5 Cost Recovery
• 3.4 Water Resources and Operational Management
• 3.4.1 Water resources - Pre-Indus Treaty.
• 3.4.2 Predicted versus Actual Water Resources Distribution
• 3.4.3 Indus Basin Canal Diversions
• 3.4.4 Groundwater
• 3.4.5 Sedimentation.
• 3.5 Irrigation and Agriculture
• 3.5.1 Irrigated and Cultivated Area in the IBIS
• 3.5.2 Cropped Area in the IBIS.
• 3.5.3 Cropping Patterns in the Tarbela Command
• 3.5.4 Cropping Intensity.
• 3.5.5 Crop Yields.
• 3.5.6 Irrigation (storage) Benefits
• 3.5.7 Production of Crops and Farmgate Prices
• 3.5.8 Gross Value of Agricultural Production
• 3.5.9 Livestock Population and Products.
• 3.6 Hydropower
• 3.6.1 Projected and Actual Power System Expansion With Tarbela.
• 3.6.2 Predicted and Actual Hydropower Generation
• 3.6.3 Economic Value of Power Benefits
• 3.6.4 Dynamic Benefits.
• 3.6.5 Avoided Thermal Plant Emissions
• 3.6.6 Quantification of Overall Economic Benefits from Power.
• 3.6.7 Impact of Tarbela on Power System Operations
• 3.6.8 Unexpected Benefit.
• 3.7 Flood Control
• 3.7.1 Effect of TDP in Attenuating Flood Peaks.
• 3.7.2 Downstream Benefits of Controlling Floods
• 3.8 Municipal and Industrial Water Supply.
• 3.8.1 Fresh Groundwater Zone
• 3.8.2 Brackish Groundwater Zone.
• 3.9 Recreation and Tourism.
• 3.10 Social Effects.
• 3.10.1 Resettlement
• 3.10.2 Social Aspects (Upstream)
• 3.10.3 Downstream Effects
• 3.10.4 Downstream Impacts in Sindh Province
• 3.11 Regional and National Aspects.
• 3.11.1 Regional Development Programs.
• 3.12 Environmental Effects
• 3.12.1 Ecological Effects
• 3.12.2 Description of the Indus Basin Ecosystems
• 3.12.3 Man-made Changes to the Indus River
• 3.12.4 Resulting Changes to the Indus Ecosystems.
• 3.12.5 Changes in Ecosystem Uses, Functions and Values
• 3.12.6 Waterlogging and Salinity
• 3.13 Summary of Predicted, Actual and Unexpected Outcomes
• 4. Distributional Effects of the Tarbela Dam Project
• 4.1 Anticipated Distributional Effects of the TDP.
• 4.1.1 Direct Irrigation and Hydropower Effects.
• 4.1.2 Direct Effects on Consumers and Production
• 4.1.3 Employment Effects on the Local and National Economy
• 4.1.4 Positive and Negative Distribution Effects
• 4.1.5 Complementary and Competing Investments
• 4.2 Actual Distribution Effects of the TDP
• 4.2.1 Direct Affectees.
• 4.2.2 Indirect Affectees
• 5. Options Assessment and the Decision-Making Process
• 5.1 Background
• 5.2 Chronology of the Tarbela-Related Events
• 5.3 Historical Context
• 5.3.1 History of the Region
• 5.3.2 History of Irrigation Development
• 5.4 Planning and Appraisal.
• 5.5 Detailed Design and Construction
• 5.5.1 Detailed Design
• 5.5.2 Construction.
• 5.5.3 The Civil Works Contract
• 5.5.4 Construction Civil Works.
• 5.6 Operation and Monitoring
• 5.6.1 Project Operation
• 5.6.2 System Monitoring.
• 5.6.3 Findings on Operation and Monitoring.
• 6. Criteria and Guidelines: Policy Evolution and Compliance
• 6.1 Systematic National Economic Development Process
• 6.2 Surface Water - Indus Basin Project.
• 6.3 Groundwater and Soil Salinity - Revelle Report
• 6.4 Revised Action Programme for Irrigated Agriculture (1979).
• 6.5 Agricultural Prices Commission
• 6.6 Water Sector Investment Planning Study (1990)
• 6.7 National Environmental and Drainage Programme (1993)
• 6.8 Institutional Reforms in Irrigated Agriculture (1994).
• 6.9 Cost Recovery.
• 6.10 Participatory Approach and Creation of PIDAs.
• 6.11 Inter-provincial Water Distribution
• 6.12 Environmental Aspects and Legislation
• 6.13 Power Sector Policies
• 6.14 Policy Evolution of Resettlement
• 7. Lessons Learned
• 7.1 Main Lessons Learned.
• 7.1.1 Planning.
• 7.1.2 Design and Construction
• 7.1.3 Operations and Monitoring
• 7.2 Stakeholders' Evaluation of Lessons Learned.
• 8. Stakeholder Views on Development Effectiveness.
• 8.1 Stakeholder Views.
• 8.1.1 Views obtained during the fieldwork of the study
• 8.1.2 Discussions during the stakeholders meeting in Karachi
• References