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Floods 'a predictable disaster'

by David Le Page, Mail & Guardian, South Africa - 20 March 2001

Floods 'a predictable disaster'

A prominent US scientist has added his voice to critics who believe that Mozambique’s floods need not have been so tragic

A leading world authority on dams and the environment has added his voice to
criticism of the management of the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams on the
Zambezi River. Recent flooding of Mozambique has seen flood-plain residents
refusing to move; at least 75 people have died.
"Both [Kariba and Cahora Bassa] are not only uni-purpose dams for the
generation of electricity, but are operated by authorities who over the
years jealously guard every drop of water for electricity generation which
is why, to date, they have been unwilling to release environmental flows
that would attempt to simulate, except during drought years when such flows
would not occur, the equivalent of a 1-2 year natural flood," said Professor
Ted Scudder of the California Institute of Technology this week.
Last week, Professor Bryan Davies of the University of Cape Town argued that
the tragic effects of flooding in Mozambique could be much reduced were the
dams to simulate natural seasonal flows and flooding. Not only would this
re-accustom flood plain residents to the danger of regular flooding, but
would lead to substantial benefits for environment and agriculture.
"Not only do I agree with Professor Davies, but I would even go further in
my critique of the way in which Kariba and Cahora Bassa are operated," said
Scudder, one of the commissioners for the World Bank-funded World Commission
on Dams. The Commission, which operated from Cape Town for two years before
making its final report in December, was chaired by Education Minister Kader
Asmal.
"In addition to the ecological benefits of such environmental flows that
Prof Davies mentions, they would also benefit tens of thousands of farm
families who practice flood recession agriculture during the dry season
months, graze their animals on the flood plains during the critical months
below the commencement of the rains, and catch the fish whose productivity
increases with the extent of flooding," said Scudder.
A Mozambican ecologist, Dr Antonio Hoguane, has calculated that if Cahora
Bassa were to reduce the current, unnaturally high rate of winter releases,
the prawn population around the Zambezi river mouth would be worth an
additional US$30-million annually.
Both Scudder and Davies are alarmed by Mozambican plans to construct a new
dam at Mepanda Uncua.
"On Mepanda Uncua, the risk is that its construction will eliminate forever
the possibility of environmental flows from Cahora Bassa (at the expense of
the delta and downstream users) -- unless it is operated solely as a run of
the river installation which would be very doubtful," says Scudder.
One possible reason why the Mozambican government is planning the Mepanda
Uncua dam is an anachronism of post-colonial history: though in Mozambique,
Cahora Bassa continues to be owned and run by the Portuguese government. The
Portuguese are still in debt for the construction of the 25-year-old dam,
and would appear to have a greater interest in generating the maximum amount
of hydro-electricity than in managing the dam for the benefit of Mozambique.
According to Davies, this pattern of management has prevailed at Cahora
Bassa from the moment the dam was completed: "Even as the dam closed,
Portuguese engineers deliberately ignored flow recommendations made by the
original impact assessment team, and during the flood season of 1974/5 they
completely stored the annual flood in order to bring the dam onto stream for
hydro-power production in the winter of 1975."
But the Portuguese seem to have allies in the South African Department of
Water Affairs and Forestry (DWAF), which last week essentially dismissed
Davies' arguments. It said: "It is unhelpful for South African
environmentalists to expect Mozambican authorities to conduct ecological
experiments at the expense of their national economy to which the power from
the dam makes a substantial contribution."
This response appears to be at odds with DWAF's own mandate. South Africa's
own three-year-old Water Act stipulates very similar management for South
African dams and rivers to that suggested by Davies, Scudder and others for
the Zambezi.
The Water Act provides for environmental assessments of normal seasonal
flows and flooding frequency for particular rivers. Once these assessments
have been made, dam managers will be obliged to gauge water releases to
mimic the natural flow of rivers. These assessments -- of the "ecological
reserve" -- have not yet been completed for most South African rivers. But
it is expected that in five years time, most South African watercourses will
be managed according to such regimes. Similar programmes, with the help of
South African scientists, are being developed for river management in
Australia.
Davies and US colleagues Richard Beilfuss, a wetland hydrologist for the
International Crane Foundation, and Lori Pottinger of the International
Rivers Network, are puzzled and disturbed by the response from DWAF, which
was made in answer to questions posed by the Mail & Guardian.
"The recent press release by DWAF on the relationship between large dams on
the Zambezi and the present Mozambique floods strikes us as written to cast
doubt on growing criticisms from the scientific community of the operation
of dams along the Zambezi and perhaps also to personally discredit those of
us who have been vocal critics of the present catastrophic flooding in
Central Mozambique,"wrote Davies, Beilfuss and Pottinger this week.
"The DWAF press release notes that dams 'can help reduce the impact of
floods'. We vehemently challenge this myth; the myth at the hub of the
present problem facing the inhabitants of the Zambezi and the authorities
and aid agencies involved in rescue operations ... the dams cannot hold back
the really big floods that come along every ten to twenty years. The result?
A predictable disaster."

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