Ripple Effects
Subtle Changes Anticipate and Build Toward WCD's Launch on November 16

In 1927 molecular physicist Werner Heisenberg shook up the scientific world with his Nobel Prize-winning thesis, "The Uncertainty Principle."

In it he proved that it is impossible, even in a vacuum, to measure the exact time and position of any moving object: the more closely and precisely you pinpoint one aspect the less accurate or predictable the other. No matter how careful, perfect or "objective" the scientist, each assessment disturbs the system, changing the experiment's subject and outcome.

How does this relate to the World Commission on Dams?

Because for two years, the WCD has, by mandate, put nearly 1000 dams under its high powered microscope. It has studied many dozens of decisions with a clinical eye. It has scrutinised and observed dam operations. Dam costs. Dam benefits. And it has done so more independently, comprehensively and scientifically than any other authority to date.

The Commission has maintained a strict, neutral and value-free eye throughout, seeking facts, sifting through material without fear or favour of what truths emerge, and drawing conclusions based on that evidence.

These conclusions are on track. Our knowledge base, criteria and guidelines are being prepared and edited for the upcoming launch. That launch will unveil the Final Report in London at Cabot Hall on 16 November 2000, and the anticipation is palpable (see pre-and post-launch box on page 2). After two years of evidence, we can offer criteria and guidelines so that others may rewrite rules of water and power development.

But this issue of DAMS isn't about future rules, or the Final Report.

It is about WCD ripple effects that already have had a measurable impact. For while the evolution of dams has been informing the WCD process, that process has begun to subtly affect the evolution of dams.

Like Heisenberg's atoms, these effects may be invisible to the naked eye. Some seep through cracks in bureaucracies. Others make headlines. More still are unfolding as this issue of DAMS goes to press.

By design the WCD can take no credit, or, for that matter, blame, for political events that occur beyond the scope of its focused mandate. It does not advocate, or take sides. But within that mandate the WCD recognises that its process of measuring dams and assessing options -- a process of gathering evidence, of observing decisions, of asking questions and of airing answers in a transparent democratic forum -- has, for better or for worse, and however slightly, disturbed the system, the subject, and, in some cases, even the outcome of the experiment.

Perhaps these process-driven "ripple effects" are inevitable in a process where a Commission analyses the actions and decisions of people or groups represented on the Commission itself. Distinctions between observer and observed can blur.

What happens post-launch? Scenarios exist but no one knows. Yet before November 16, and in diverse ways, the WCD process has had a measurable effect on the time, position and momentum of dams and development.

Consider this issue a snapshot of those ripple effects. It reflects current comments and thoughts from Forum members, countries, and institutions. We include them not as remote and distant observers seeking to measure the changing position and momentum of decisions about dams. We use them to hold a mirror up to the WCD, to measure our own certain mandate against an unpredictable and uncertain world.